Australian property investment is changing. From July 2027, negative gearing will generally favour newhousing, while the treatment of capital gains also changes. For owners of established investment property,the difference between what you already own and what you buy next could become significant.

Australia restricted negative gearing between 1985 and 1987. Rents rose sharply in Sydney and Perth—butnot everywhere. The lesson from history is simple: tax changes influence property markets, but supply,vacancy rates and demand ultimately determine what happens locally.

The new tax rules favour investment in new housing over established property. Could that mean fewerinvestors competing for established Sydney apartments—and more opportunity for owner-occupiers? From2027, the distinction between “new” and “established” may matter much more than it does today.

Sydney isn't Perth. Redfern isn't Parramatta. And two apartment buildings in the same suburb can performvery differently. National property statistics make headlines, but property remains intensely local. Knowingwho is buying—and what they are prepared to pay—is often far more valuable.